Metals generally declined, with coking coal and polysilicon leading the declines, while SHFE gold and SHFE silver strengthened together, with SHFE silver rising nearly 3% [SMM Daily Review]

SMM News on June 3:

Metal Market:

As of the daytime close, domestic base metals generally declined, with only SHFE nickel rising, up 0.14%. SHFE aluminum and SHFE tin both fell by over 1%, with SHFE aluminum down 1.12% and SHFE tin down 1.23%. The declines of other metals were all within 1%. The main alumina contract rose by 1.39%.

In addition, the main lithium carbonate contract rose by 0.33%, the main polysilicon contract fell by 2.65%, and the main silicon metal contract fell by 1.39%. The main European container shipping contract rose by 0.76%.

In the ferrous metals series, prices fell collectively, with declines exceeding 1% for all except stainless steel. Stainless steel fell by 0.59%, iron ore fell by 1.14%, rebar fell by 1.18%, and HRC fell by 1.04%. In the coking coal and coke sector, coking coal fell by 3.03%, and coke fell by 1.1%.

In the overseas market, as of 15:02, overseas base metals collectively declined, with LME aluminum, LME zinc, and LME nickel all falling by over 1%. LME aluminum fell by 1.05%, LME zinc fell by 1.3%, and LME nickel fell by 1.01%. The declines of other metals were all within 1%.

In precious metals, as of 15:02, COMEX gold fell by 0.52%, and COMEX silver fell by 0.98%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose by 1.4%, and SHFE silver rose by 2.85%. Geopolitical tensions are high, and tariff policies have fluctuated repeatedly. The US manufacturing sector continues to be weak. Market uncertainty remains elevated, and risk-averse sentiment has intensified, driving gold and silver prices higher, with SHFE silver outperforming SHFE gold.

》Precious metals sector surges, Western Mining hits daily limit! After silver prices soar, wait-and-see sentiment prevails in spot market [SMM Flash News]

Market conditions as of 15:02 today

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Macro Front

Domestic Aspect:

[Stable demand growth: Total social logistics in China increased by 5.6% YoY from January to April this year] The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) released logistics operation data for the first four months of this year today (June 3). In April, China's logistics sector withstood external shocks and pressures, demonstrating strong resilience and development potential, maintaining an overall stable and improving development trend. From January to April this year, the total social logistics in China reached 115.3 trillion yuan, up 5.6% YoY.

[National Federation of Industry and Commerce Automobile Dealers Chamber of Commerce proposes: Resolutely resist "cut-throat competition" primarily in the form of "price wars"] The National Federation of Industry and Commerce Automobile Dealers Chamber of Commerce announced that, under the influence of the current industry market conditions, the automobile dealership sector has been severely affected and impacted, facing a series of issues such as increased operating pressures, reduced profitability, high vehicle inventory, and tight working capital, which have had a serious impact on the sustained and healthy development of the industry. Particularly since Q2 this year, amid the impact of a new round of "price wars," the situation faced by automotive dealers across the board has become more severe. To maintain a good, healthy, and fair market competition order and promote the high-quality development of the automotive industry, including the automotive dealership sector, the National Federation of Industry and Commerce Automotive Dealers Chamber of Commerce proposes the following initiatives:

1. The entire industry should prioritize the overall goal of achieving high-quality development in China's automotive industry, strictly adhere to the principle of fair competition, and resolutely resist cut-throat competition behaviors primarily in the form of "price wars."

2. Focus on brand image. Prevent frequent adjustments to sales policies and product selling prices from increasing the difficulty of sales for dealers and affecting the brand's image among consumers.

3. Improve the living conditions of automotive dealers. Adhere to the principle of producing based on sales, reasonably set annual production targets for enterprises and sales targets for dealers, refrain from shifting inventory burdens onto dealers or forcing them to purchase vehicles, effectively reduce dealers' inventory levels; rectify the issue of inverted purchase-sale prices, promptly provide rebates to dealers, shorten the payment collection cycle for dealers, reasonably determine the number of test-drive vehicles, and alleviate the pressure on dealers' working capital.

4. Optimize business policies. Reasonably set performance evaluation indicators for dealers, exercise caution in using fines, and avoid coercing dealers to meet corresponding targets through performance evaluations.

5. Improve the network exit mechanism. Do not coerce dealers to exit the network or close stores under the pretext of optimizing network channels, and provide appropriate compensation to dealers who genuinely need to exit the network or close stores.

►The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar in the interbank foreign exchange market on June 3 was 7.1869 RMB per US dollar.

US dollar updates:

As of 15:02, the US dollar index rose by 0.14% to 98.83. The US core PCE price index for April increased by 2.5% YoY, in line with expectations, and decreased by 0.2 percentage points from the revised prior value of 2.7%, representing the smallest increase in over four years. The US ISM manufacturing PMI for May was 48.5, the lowest since November 2024, marking the third consecutive month of contraction, with the imports sub-index hitting a 16-year low. Lorie Logan, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, stated that due to a stable labor market, inflation slightly above target, and an uncertain outlook, the US Fed is closely monitoring a range of data to determine what response measures may be needed. Austan Goolsbee, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, expressed that he still believes that after the "dust" of uncertainty brought about by tariff policies settles, the US Fed will be able to reduce short-term borrowing costs. (Wenhua Comprehensive)

Macro updates:

Today, data such as the year-on-year rate of Switzerland's CPI for May, the year-on-year rate of the eurozone's harmonized CPI for May (unadjusted initial value), the eurozone's unemployment rate for April, the month-on-month revised value of the US's durable goods orders for April, the month-on-month value of the US's factory orders for April, and the US's JOLTs job openings for April will be released. Additionally, South Korea held its presidential election on June 3, with the stock market closed for the day. The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange designated 8:55-9:00 on June 3 as the call auction period for all futures and options contracts, with night session trading resuming that evening. Goolsbee, a 2025 FOMC voting member and President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, participated in a Q&A session. Fed Chairman Powell delivered opening remarks at an event. South Korea tentatively scheduled its presidential election for June 3. The Reserve Bank of Australia released the minutes of its June monetary policy meeting. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda delivered a speech. South Korea held its presidential election.

Crude Oil:

As of 15:02, oil prices in both markets rose simultaneously, with US crude up 0.46% and Brent crude up 0.29%, primarily due to investor concerns about supply and support from a weaker US dollar. ING analysts stated in a report that the oil market surged on Monday amid escalating geopolitical risks and OPEC's production increase falling short of expectations, providing support for oil prices. ING said on Tuesday, "The momentum carried over into the early morning trading today." Both WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil futures rose nearly 3% the previous day, after OPEC maintained its July production increase at 411,000 barrels per day, the same as the previous two months and below market expectations.

Priyanka Sachdeva, a senior market analyst at Phillip Nova, said, "Supported by a weaker US dollar, crude oil prices continue to rise." A wildfire in Alberta, Canada, temporarily halted some oil and natural gas production, potentially reducing supply and exacerbating supply concerns. It is estimated that the Canadian wildfire affected over 344,000 barrels per day of oil sands production, accounting for approximately 7% of the country's total crude oil production.

In addition, preliminary survey results released on Monday indicated that US crude oil inventories may have declined last week, while distillate and gasoline inventories likely rose. Before the weekly inventory report was released, the average forecast of four surveyed analyst firms was that US crude oil inventories fell by approximately 900,000 barrels in the week ending May 30.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) will release its weekly crude oil inventory report at 4:30 Beijing time on Wednesday, and the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release its weekly crude oil inventory report at 22:30 Beijing time on Wednesday. (Wenhua Comprehensive)

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